THE DALY SHOW

Conference On Global and Green Economy

I am emceeing a big event in Las Vegas November 17 and 18 at the Las Vegas Hilton.  Here’s a video to explain it all.  If you’re looking to jump start your business in this new economy and go green, this is the place to start.  You will also have a chance to network with companies from around the United States and around the world while also being a part of the International Congress of Business Professionals.  I was enticed by their strong educational programs that will train and re-train workers and executives in this new world.  I’ve written many times here that the economy went through a tectonic shift in the past two years.  Those who understand it and are educated to navigate the wreckage and the opportunities will thrive in the next few years.  I think this is one place to start.

Another Weapon of Mass Distortion. A Sports Twist

Did you hear the joke that the Steelers have to give back 3 of their Super Bowl trophies?  Yup, the President made them do it.  Did you also hear the joke that the NFL is a bunch of Commies?  Read it here.

Preparing For Economic Earthquake

Get Ready.  The ground is shifting.  In this post at JohnDalyLive, I have put together a piece that should be a guide for this new shift in our economic, political, and social landscape.  Please give me your thoughts.

Missing The Point of Atlas Shrugged

 This is a posting about a piece written by Stephen Moore in the Wall Street Journal about Ayn Rand’s classic novel Atlas Shrugged and its relevance to today’s economic crisis. Although I agree with most of what Moore says, I think he fails to mention the true meaning of Atlas. I would also encourage you to read another classic, The Great Gatsby, which has many more lessons we fail to learn.

LAS VEGAS, NV (January 12, 2009) – Stephen Moore is an economics writer for the Wall Street Journal. He’s also a frequent guest on news and business talk shows. I enjoy him and his work. This past weekend he wrote a piece January 9, 2009 called Atlas Shrugged: From Fiction To Fact in 52 Years. It was well-written. Here’s Moore’s nice description of Ayn Rand’s work that has become the Bible for libertarians.

For the uninitiated, the moral of the story is simply this: Politicians invariably respond to crises — that in most cases they themselves created — by spawning new government programs, laws and regulations. These, in turn, generate more havoc and poverty, which inspires the politicians to create more programs . . . and the downward spiral repeats itself until the productive sectors of the economy collapse under the collective weight of taxes and other burdens imposed in the name of fairness, equality and do-goodism.

Moore also makes his pitch to gather new converts.

If only “Atlas” were required reading for every member of Congress and political appointee in the Obama administration. I’m confident that we’d get out of the current financial mess a lot faster.

Not so fast, Stephen.

Like most libertarians and followers of Ayn Rand, Moore has missed the true meaning of Rand and her effect on American life in 2009.

First, Rand has already bled into the fabric of American life and business. Look at the millions of small businesses in America. Look at the number of people who work full-time and have businesses on the side. Imagine how many more enterprises will sprout as the Internet becomes a ubiquitous form of distribution and we shake off the old ways of last century’s corporate culture. Even Democrats, once known as strictly the party of unions and welfare recipients, understand the need to spur business to create jobs.

Rand, for me, is imbedded into the thinking of most Americans who haven’t even read the book.

But secondly and more importantly, libertarians and Randites fail to see the Rand-created villains that still exist today in their own ranks – namely Wesley Mooch. Mooch is a mediocre bureaucrat who becomes the nation’s economic dictator through betrayal and well-placed connections.

Who is Wesley Mooch today? He is the lobbyist and campaign donor; he’s also the corporate executive who wines, dines and lavishly entertains our elected officials behind closed doors. These are the people who have helped kill innovation today: look no further than our car companies.

Trust me, I’ve seen it. I’ve met many of these elected officials and business leaders who are nice guys but cannot intelligently, let alone intellectually, converse on issues that affect our way of life and business. Yet, they set policy; policy that’s based on who pays them – not on what’s good for America.

(Look at TV news – especially cable news. People like Ann Coulter are always on air because she offers “good television,” not because she has intelligent insight and information.)

While we try to figure out whom to give bailout money to, we forget that most politicians in both parties have gotten sweetheart deals from big business on mortgages, land deals, and campaign donations. The secret wiretappings of Gov. Blago are the norm, not the exception. Does Duke Cunningham ring a bell? You can add others still in Congress like Rangel, Dodd, and Frank.

And this won’t stop. Why? It makes too much sense (and cents) for big business to curry favor with politicians who are making laws. Laws can and will be tweaked to benefit the donor. It’s a small investment that can return millions. But it also creates an unfair advantage to small businesses that don’t have the clout, money, or access.

And this is where Moore and the Randites look silly. Their ranks are loaded with Wesley Mooches and they don’t even know it. I love to hear corporate bigwigs scream about how high our taxes are in America. Yet, they fail to mention the give-backs the politicians bestow on them. With those give-backs included, the U.S. has one of the lowest net corporate tax rates, according to many analysts. And then we scream about other nations stopping free trade.

And what’s even more amazing is the number of people who are small business people who will take to the Rand pulpit and defend these give-backs that will never reach them.

If Ayn Rand were alive today, she’d be asking for the abolishment of all forms of campaign contribution. Politicians don’t need it. They have the internet and other forms of mass communication to inform and educate the masses. But it’s much easier to line their pockets with money from donors and large media companies who reap profits from those donors in the form of campaign advertising.

Wake up, Randites and libertarians. You’ve been invaded by Mooches. And you have yourselves to blame because you’ve gotten lazy and rested on the original interpretation of Atlas.

I’m sure libertarians have just placed their version of a fatwa on me. This is blasphemy to them. But libertarians, like staunch liberals and conservatives, fall in love with their philosophies; they stop thinking and evolving. Think back on the famous adage of “No new taxes.” It sounds good and it’s well-founded economic theory – only if you include spending cuts.

Ayn Rand was an anti-Communist who woke us up to the pitfalls of Socialism. It’s no different than what Marx did in the 1800s; he woke us up to the pitfalls of capitalism. Both thinkers – and many others like Darwin and Keynes – transformed society; how we live and how we do business.

America is an evolving, reactive society. We don’t follow one philosophy. We’re a melting pot of thought. What makes us exceptional is our ability to form new forward thinking through social and business experimentation.

Ayn Rand is a major part of that American progress. So is Marx — whether we like it or not. (If Marx were alive today, we’d be listening to him on TV and one of the things he’d be upset about is the portrayal of his theories by the totalitarians in Soviet Russia and Red China in the last century.) But Keynes and Darwin are also strongly embedded in our thinking. Many others, too.

Should you read Atlas? Absolutely. It’s a great work. It is one of my five most influential books in American history. (A literary note: read Alan Greenspan’s autobiography. He was a Rand disciple and spent a lot of time with her in the 1950s and 1960s and he offers some interesting insight into Rand.)

But Atlas is not the Bible as most libertarians think. It has its flaws.

My problem with Atlas is its homage to one man – John Galt – who has the answers while being persecuted and tortured by the enemies of society. In the end of the novel, he is exalted as the messiah to America who will deliver us to true capitalism. This is trite and one dimensional.

Galt is the creation of a Russian writer; surely an anti-Communist, but also a Russian. Russia loves their strong-armed, rugged, individual leaders – not intellectuals or sacrificing servants. The line of dictators and despots starts from Peter The Great, Catherine The Great, through the czars, Lenin, and ending today with Putin. Can you make a literary connection between Galt and Putin? Sure, they’re both bringing order back to society that have been ravaged by their enemies.

Sorry, folks, but parts of Rand smack of Fascism. Still, that doesn’t remove the lessons we Americans have derived from Atlas.

My suggestion is to also read The Great Gatsby by F. Scott Fitzgerald. (It’s shorter reading.) This is still the greatest American novel. It was written in 1925 and its lessons still ring true.

Like Gatsby’s 1920s parties, we just lived in “orgiastic” times. Now the party is over with plenty of hang-over headaches. Some of our high and mighty have had Gatsby like endings – dead and motionless in the bottom of a swimming pool.

Gatsby’s gangsters are no different than today’s. Meyer Wolfsheim is the 1920s version of Bernie Madoff. Gatsby says Wolfsheim “fixed the 1919 World Series.” The laudatory tone of Gatsby’s description of Wolfsheim is similar to the pre-crisis belief that someone with money must be a good person. No one dared question Madoff’s incomprehensible returns: he’s rich. I’ll let you decide if stealing $50 billion equates to fixing the 1919 World Series.

(Another literary note: Wolfsheim is the dramatic creation of Arnold Rothstein, the gambler who really set the Black Sox scandal into motion. Read the book Eight Men Out or see the film.)

Gatsby even foresees the environmental crises that will occur decades later. He takes the famous Hawthorne poem, Evangeline, in the 1800s that extols “a forest primeval” and turns it into “This is the valley of ashes” in Gatsby. Fitzgerald laments that all those trees the first Dutch sailors saw in America are gone.

What’s amazing about Gatsby is that it was written in the 1920s – before the Depression. Yet, Fitzgerald saw that coming, too. Rand, on the other hand, wrote about the effects of Communism decades after 1917.

Like Gatsby, we Americans “are borne back ceaselessly into the past” to our detriment. Gatsby thought he could go back into the past and find love with Daisy. We Americans constantly think we can find that fountain of youth or the financial model that will make us all wealthy. The truth is we age and the economy has cycles.

We also believe we can find that one philosophy – like the 1950s Biblical lessons of Atlas – to find utopia. But society changes along with our technology and our thinking. The lessons of the 1950s don’t entirely apply today.

We fail to learn the lessons of Gatsby — until it’s too late. We’re “like boats against the currents”. We struggle, survive, and then thrive through traumas like Steinbeck’s 1930s Grapes of Wrath and the upheavals of today.

US Dissolves. Russian Hope or American Lesson?

This is a posting about a Russian analyst who believes the United States will not exist by 2010 and will be broken up into various parts owned by other countries. Sure, it’s silly stuff. But let’s look at the underlying reasons for such a prediction – while looking at ourselves.

LAS VEGAS, NV (January 3, 2009) – According to Igor Panarin, in two years I’ll be living here in Las Vegas under the government of the Peoples Republic of China.

Panarin is a Russian academic who has predicted that the United States would dissolve into four different countries and be run by other countries.

For example, the Northeast and parts of the Midwest would be part of the European Union. (Would that mean easier access to Amsterdam?)

The northern plains would be Canadian. (Think of how much better the NHL would be with fewer teams. And Canada almost certainly wins the gold medal in the winter Olympics.)

The Republic of Texas would be part of Mexico. (And this will bring one of the bloodiest civil wars of all time. Bush and Cheney would be the new el Presidentes, getting what they’ve wanted all along: controlling all oil reserves and declaring war on a group of people who are clearly evil — the drug traffickers.)

And folks like me in the Far West would be under China. (I can see us Las Vegans thinking that the gaming industry will prosper greatly. But I doubt our comrades in Idaho are going to be passive when it comes to the Chinese.)

And, here’s the best: Russia would get Alaska back. (Wouldn’t that be justice for Sarah Palin? If she’s still governor, she would be taking orders from Vlad Putin.)

Surely, this is silly stuff. Panarin is trained by the Kremlin so there is plenty of Russian wishful thinking. It makes me realize that Russian intelligence is as out of whack as ours was before 9/11.

I emailed the article to my friend, John Alexander, a PhD who consults for U.S. Special Forces. He wrote back: “While we have some significant problems, I suspect he (Panarin) is pretty far off base.”

Panarin really doesn’t appear (notice I said “doesn’t appear”) to “get” Americans. And I’d bet he never saw Casablanca. Remember the Nazi, Major Strasser. He asks Rick about German forces marching into New York City. Rick replies, “Well there are certain sections of New York, Major, that I wouldn’t advise you to try to invade.” The same holds true today whether it’s Baltimore, Miami, LA, or Boise.

Apparently Panarin thinks Americans and Russians are alike. A Washington Post article offers some good counter-balance to Panarin. The article quotes Thomas Baerwald, an investigator in a project called “Beyond Borders” and past president of the Association of American Geographers. He compares Americans to the citizens who were living under the former Soviet Union.

“We constantly were corrected when we tried to use the term ‘Soviets’ as a catch-all phrase for residents of the U.S.S.R.,” Baerwald says. “People firmly told us that they were Russians or Lithuanians or Estonians or Ukrainians or other terms that identified a region or subregion that described their own geographical identity. In contrast, if you ask U.S. residents what term describes who they are, an enormous majority will reply ‘I am an American.’ Even in those places where regional loyalties are especially strong, such as Texas, loyalties to the U.S. are far greater than they are to states or regions.

Still, Panarin’s predictions resonate. He hits home in a slightly unsettling way. No one in America would have heard of Panarin if the Wall Street Journal didn’t publish a front-page story on his findings and the Russian media frenzy following him. Ironically, it is still the most read article on the Wall Street Journal online. Don’t negate this.

So, someone is obviously giving Panarin an ounce of “what if?”

And it’s for good reason, too. We are in a financial mess that most of us can’t figure out. We see our leaders – namely the supposedly smarts ones like Paulson and Bernanke – scratching their heads. President Obama has to put together a team that is non-partisan; in other words, they really have to work since going to Washington isn’t a perk anymore but a responsibility as a citizen of this country. He’s really serious and that scares us.

I’ve written about a possible Armageddon here. I still say you need to keep cash on reserve for 2009 and be prepared to protect yourself and your loved ones. Too often, I hear from friends – wealthy friends – who don’t sleep at night wondering if their fortunes are going to be wiped out.

We also hear from pundits, sure they seem extreme, who say we’re printing so much money that we will have devalued the dollar to nothing, leading us to a regional currency called the Amero that will include Mexico and Canada. Others say our debt is owned by China, Saudi Arabia, and Dubai: if we default, then they own us. Hey we trashed the analysts a few years ago who said we are headed for a housing collapse. Who wouldn’t at least listen to these new theories?

However, before you run for the hills with shot-guns and survivalist supplies or you start trying to speak a foreign language to get acquainted with your new oppressors or lawmakers, let me assure you I’m only making a point here. We’re not going to disintegrate.

However, Panarin’s theory is partially right. And this is the lesson we need to take from the theories of this Russian.

We have disintegrated as a country. We have strayed from our ideals. Am I condemning America? No, we suffered through 9/11 and its effects are far deeper than we imagined. As a result, we have, at times, stopped being the America we once were.

When President Bush and VP Cheney point to their enduring achievement, it’s that we were not attacked again on American soil after 9/11. They’re right. But they’re wrong, too. As a result of that goal, which we all clung to, we became a different country. We invaded Iraq. We told the rest of the world, “You’re either with us or against us.” We became a black and white country; we never saw the gray. Our leaders sounded like Fascists. We acted like Fascists, torturing to allegedly stop torture.

Am I condemning this out-going Administration? Not totally. I was not in their shoes. I don’t know what they faced. However in hindsight, they responded like frightened old men. They headed to the bunkers and failed to lead.

There’s a good book. It’s called, The Idea That Is America: Keeping Faith With Our Values In A Dangerous World. It’s written by Anne-Marie Slaughter.

She points out that America is currently in a state of trying to seek power as an end in itself and as a result the world looks at us as ignorant, immoral, and incompetent imperialists.

Slaughter also points out that these values are the foundation of our country: liberty, democracy, equality, justice, tolerance, humility and faith. She points out how we have failed to live up to them.

What we show the rest of the world too often is Madison Avenue, rich and loud American entertainers, sports figures, and business executives who are the extremist minority of America. For instance, we never questioned Bernie Madoff because he was exceedingly wealthy, but that was the reason we should have questioned him.

The world sees the lavish Super Bowl half-time show but is never taught the intricacies or beauties of the football game. I don’t know about you, but I have barely seen any Super Bowl half-time show.

One of the consequences of losing our real values is this economic downturn. This is my take, not necessarily Slaughter’s. We offered plenty of liberty to certain interest groups who had money and pull with our elected leaders while failing to create equality – especially in business. Our founding fathers were worried about “human fallacies” so they gave us a system of checks and balances. This Bush Administration and some Democrats in power discarded those values – especially the checks on greed in business.

The two values we need to concentrate on are humility and faith. As powerful and as smart as we Americans are, we don’t have all the answers. We need input from other countries. We also need to say every now and then to the world, “We screwed the pooch.” The War in Iraq and the economic downturn would be two good places to start.

Subconsciously, we Americans know this. That’s why we voted the way we did in November. That’s why some forward thinking people like Newt Gingrich, now in the minority, are telling the GOP to start being a party of ideas, not whining obstructionists.

I think Obama will at least give us a humble face to the rest of the world. We’ll see how long that lasts when he faces the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Surely, we need to stand with Israel, but we also need to make sure that the power of the Israeli military doesn’t create more conflict among the down-trodden Palestinians. It’s in our interest – and Israel’s – to have a prosperous Palestine.

And our faith. We’ve lost a lot of faith – thanks to religion. Slaughter points out that many of our religious institutions divide us rather than including some of the good secular themes such as tolerance. And the secularists are just as much to blame (maybe me too) by automatically dismissing all of the overly religious as stupid or intolerant.

So, don’t read Panarin — and his theories of Russian wishful thinking — with disdain. No, read it with some humility and faith, and then take away something to make America stronger.

The Reality of Economic and Social Collapse

This is a posting about what some call the impending collapse of the American and eventually the world economic system — that seems more feasible everyday. Please read the piece by Dmitry Orlov, an engineer whose research and observations of the Soviet collapse show similarities to a collapse here in the United States. I’ll offer my take. Give me yours.

LAS VEGAS, NV (December 3, 2008) – My recent columns here, Mumbai Implications and the Age of American Survivalist and It’s Time For Bunker Mentality, brought some email response from some good friends in Wisconsin.

Bill, an old-time friend, writes.

So I read his piece and Geoff’s “holy crap” is warranted. I hope you’ll re-read my pieces and read Dmitry’s here. Post your comments below.

From here in this posting, I will offer my assessment of Dmitry Orlov’s piece. But first, a reminder.

Predicting the future is a no-win situation. Maybe I’m too influenced by the Black Swan theory, but there are random events that happen and change the course of history. Being able to decipher and explain history and its events, years after, is one thing. However, predicting it as it unfolds is another. There are things that will happen over the next year or two we never saw coming; they’re random events. There will also be things that happen that seem random at first and then make sense only afterwards.

There are three possible events. The first would be the discovery or the harnessing of a cheaper energy source. The second is the financial rescue of the United States by the Peoples Republic of China. Trust me; China needs our economy to keep their society running smoothly with more than one billion people. I’ve heard this from a number of sources I respect. The third is the stimulus package might actually work and transform America – as costly down the road as it might be.

Another thing to remember when reading Dmitry is that he witnessed the collapse of the Soviet Union. This may seem pompous, but the Soviet system is not similar to the American system. And Russians are not similar to Americans. I truly believe the American people will not allow a collapse of our system. Our principles and beliefs will be fought for as our Founding Fathers did in 1776 and as Lincoln did at the start of the Civil War.

Dmitry also has a distrust of our politicians and our political system. Who wouldn’t? But I think in times of crisis, we Americans rise to the occasion. We’re much better at reacting rather than planning for catastrophe. The fact that Republicans and Democrats are dropping most of their ideological stands to support President-elect Obama is one good sign.

Dmitry also has a silly notion of forming a Collapse Party. He calls it whimsical, but he says the platforms of this party are being followed. This is a minor point of contention for me, but I think it shows a naïveté of the American political psyche. We’re serious when it counts.

Does this mean I’m disagreeing with my previous posts and Dmitry? No. What he predicts and what I hint at are realities – as awful as they may seem. But let’s not get caught up in who’s right about predictions. Who wants to stand on the scrap heap of America and gladly say, “I told you so.”

What Dmitry and I echo are warnings. Be prepared to live with far less wealth and luxury. Take care of those you love. Think about hunkering down with elderly parents or younger children.

Dimitry’s posting is called The Five Stages of Collapse which was an article and a speech he gave in November, 2008. In a nutshell, here is his theory about how we’re trying fruitlessly to avert this crisis.

Dmitry believes no effort by government and the financial industry can change this.

Dmitry says no. So what will the first signs of collapse look like?

Despite Dmitry’s apparent doom and gloom, he offers solutions for the future.

I have forwarded Dmitry’s piece to John to get his take. Until then, let’s hear yours.

Daly Economic Stimulus Package III

This is a posting considering what the Swedes did to solve their banking crisis. Can Swedish thinking solve the world’s economic crisis?

LAS VEGAS, (November 24, 2008) – I’ve proposed an infusion of government money to the nation’s homeowners in a previous post. Sure, it’s fraught with problems. What plan isn’t? Doing nothing would be criminal. Doing something too small, it seems, is worthless.

Barton Biggs is a big-time investor who now has a company called Traxis Partners. He was just on CNBC’s Squawk Box. He doesn’t know about my plan, but he seems to think the same big thinking I have. (Maybe not as big as mine, but still big.)

He thinks the current TARP is a “half-way measure.” He believes banks won’t start lending until those bad loans – CDOs and CDSs included – are off the banks’ balance sheets. The only way is for the government to buy those bad loans and infuse the banks with more capital.

He looks at Sweden’s banking crisis in the early 1990s – which survived and thrived. The Swedes infused money which was equivalent to 20% of GDP.

That means we would have to infuse more than $2 trillion – far less than my $7.5 trillion – but far higher than what we’ve done so far which is about 4%.

Again, I’m no economist, just an observer. So, take my plan with a grain of salt. But you need to look at what is happening out there – and what is not happening. Primarily, we’re doing too little as a nation to solve this problem.

But there is a silver lining to doing something big.

We’ve been hearing all the talk about America’s falling power and prominence in the world. I think those assessments are over-exaggerated. Are other emerging market countries rising? Yes. But they’re not about to overtake us politically, economically, or militarily.

If anything, this economic crisis shows American strength and our control over the world. When we sneeze, the world gets a cold. In this case, it’s the flu. If our economy went into the tank and the rest of the world thrived, then, yes, I’d agree that we’re on the decline. But the world needs us desperately for some specific reasons.

First, our government and banking system, though causing these problems, has to be the leader to solve them.

Second, once we get our economy moving again, the rest of the world will begin to recover. The American consumer is the basis for the world’s economy.

Third, even though we’re suffering here and the suffering will get worse over the next year, there is no talk of riots or a government coup here. The foundations of our government and our economy are in place. Those foundations do not exist in China, Russia, or Iran.

Those governments are worried. China has infused money into their financial system just to quell any protests from the many workers who are no longer working – since Americans aren’t buying.

Russia is losing revenues due to the fall in oil prices. Their stock market is in the tank. The Kremlin worries about food lines and unemployment.

Iran is the same way. Their oil revenues are dropping while they have failed to upgrade their refining capabilities and they continue to subsidize citizens’ gasoline use. They’re bleeding money over there. In fact, Iran’s lack of revenues might have led to the U.S. agreement on troops in Iraq.

This economic unrest is scary. Massive economic downturns lead to totalitarianism, as we saw in the 1930s.

To avoid further dictatorships, America needs to step forward and get our economy and the world’s economy flowing again. The APEC meeting this weekend seemed to understand that free-trade – not tariffs – is needed. That’s a good sign. But the real catalyst will be a massive infusion into the U.S. economy now.

Go Sweden.

Joe Biden, First Woman VP: Source

This is a posting about a high source in the Democratic Party who says chances are better now that Joe Biden will be Obama’s running mate.

LAS VEGAS, NV (August 16, 2008) – A Democratic source has told me that, in Vegas lingo, it’s 80-20 or 70-30 that Senator Joe Biden from Delaware will be Obama’s VP choice. We could get the news this week.

Is this set in stone? Not yet.

But here are the two reasons Biden is now the leading the VP sweepstakes ahead of Indiana Senator Evan Bayh who seemed to be a sure bet a few days ago.

The first reason appears to be the game changer: the Russia-Georgia conflict. Michael Tomasky, in the British publication The Guardian, commented on Biden’s chances growing in a recent blog. Since the conflict isn’t going away, Tomasky writes:

Biden’s foreign-affairs experience may therefore come in awfully handy, not only on the stump but, if elected, once in office. Biden can go toe-to-toe with McCain on global questions with more authority than Bayh (or frankly Obama) can. And he wouldn’t be shy about doing it. Interesting thought.

Well, Michael, according to my source your interesting thought is about to become Democratic reality. I should mention that other political blogs are catching the momentum to Biden too, especially after an Op-ed piece Biden wrote in the Financial Times on the conflict which had foresight and even-handedness.

For Evan Bayh, it’s bad timing. Bayh has experience at running government. He would give Obama what Gore brought Clinton; someone who could delve into the tedium of government machinations and make something happen positively. However, that’s not topic one anymore.

Thanks to Putin flexing his muscles, the emphasis seems to have moved toward someone with large foreign policy experience – like Biden. I should note that Bayh is no foreign policy slouch, even though most observers would give Biden the upper hand in dealing with foreign policy.

But there’s a second reason for Biden’s ascendency that could cure a political dilemma facing Obama when he goes to Denver. The problem is Hillary.

Biden, according to my source, can corral the Hillary voters: women in their 50s and 60s. My source explains that Biden was the main force behind The Violence Against Women Act in the 1990s. “He’s almost considered a woman,” the source told me, meaning it as the highest of compliments. If Biden is selected by Obama you will hear more and more about this legislation.

The problem Obama has in choosing Biden is that Biden might overshadow him. He could become Dukakis’ Lloyd Benson in 1988. Biden is dynamic, he’s smart, and he’s great copy for writers and TV folk.

However, that leads to another problem: Joe sometimes talks too much. And when he tries to be funny, he overreaches and sometimes puts his foot in his mouth.

If Biden is the choice, it will be a good one for Obama. However, it will force McCain to find someone equally as dynamic with the ability to verbally spar, and frankly, I can’t think of anyone right now. Maybe Johnny Mac brings back Dick Armey?

Georgia-Russia Conflict: America Roars with Toothless Gums

This is a posting about my reflections on Russia’s invasion of Georgia and how to look at it from various angles. 

LAS VEGAS, NV (August 13, 2008) – Either Putin’s brilliant or the Bush government is out to lunch. It’s actually both.

Stratfor was the first to pinpoint it for me. You need a subscription to their reports, but let me give you a quick synopsis of what I had been thinking and some of what Stratfor reported a few days after Georgia’s invasion of South Ossetia and then Russia’s retaliatory invasion of Georgia.

This was a colossal mistake by Georgia. They invaded South Ossetia to stop some of the cross border bombings – something that had been happening for a while. Why would they send in troops now?

The quick and massive response makes one think that Russia had covertly orchestrated this all along, coaxing Georgia into a fight. Worse, U.S. intelligence and diplomats failed to either dissuade Georgia or failed to see the Russians hanging on the border ready to pounce.

To countries in Eastern Europe we look like a toothless tiger. We roar and then show our gums. We’re bogged down in the Middle East; our economy is dragging in part because we can’t control energy costs; and the world is growing so dramatically that it’s too big for us to baby-sit.

So, why would we try to attract these countries that border on Russia and invite them into NATO with the assurance of defending them – and then fail to not only defend them, but to warn them or to even counsel them?

In some circles, these governments could actually think America might be working in concert with Russia; a bit far-fetched and better suited for an espionage thriller, but not out of the realm of possibility.

More likely, the answer is that America is an energy weakling. Energy is the Holy Grail in this new century. Russia, Venezuela, and the Middle East have it; America doesn’t. Putin has brilliantly converted petro-dollars into regional power.

I posted an article I wrote from Russia six years ago.  I met a young Russian sailor Andre and how he made ends meet in post-Soviet Russia.

Andre is a Russian sailor. He makes one hundred dollars a month to support three boys and his wife in a small apartment. To survive, he is part of the new underground Moscow economy. Two days a week, he drives around Moscow picking up people who need a ride. A traveler simply sticks out a thumb, a driver stops, you negotiate a fee, and you get to your destination. No taxi authority is necessary.

I would bet that Andre, if still in the Russian Navy, is getting along much better thanks to the petro-dollars. Plus, his military colleagues are better trained – as we heard in Georgia.

Before we condemn Russia, let’s look at the situation through their eyes.

First, Russia was told by the previous two American presidents that we would not try to enlarge NATO with former Soviet Republics. We reneged on that.

Second, we want to put missiles in the region that can strike Russia.

Third, we helped Kosovo secede from Serbia, a Russian ally, despite Russia’s efforts to allow Kosovo to remain autonomous within Serbia.

Fourth, we arm and train Georgia soldiers. Think of Georgia as Cuba; we wouldn’t allow that.

Fifth, historically Russia has been threatened in the past. When you look at all the moves the West made, it’s easy for Russians to think that their country could be choked off economically. I don’t think the Russian reaction was any different than the French reaction to us before Sarkozy; they weren’t upset we went into Iraq, they’re upset that our way or life may diminish or eliminate French culture.

Sixth, the Russians invaded a small country to make a point – not to build a new empire. And, as The Art of War explains, they attacked when they were strong; the Russian economy is in relatively good shape and their coffers with petro-dollars is very strong at least in the short term.

I’m not defending any of Russia’s or Putin’s moves. In the long run, this could hurt Russia – especially if other energy sources are found. We won’t know for years if Putin erred. Certainly he made the right move in the eyes of most Russians. As an outsider, I believe he has, first and foremost, the Russian people’s backs.

The Bush Administration is a different story. They miscalculated again. Or, they failed to have a clear-thinking, forward looking policy.

We need Russia for a number of things. The first is their oil that will heat and keep Europe going. Second, we need Russia to reign in Iran so that oil will continue to flow and cost less. (Notice the oil theme.) Third, Russia wants to be a power again, but they’re not going to take over the world.

Go back and read my piece and see my impressions of the Russian people. They don’t want the disgrace they endured as the Berlin Wall and Communism fell. They have a history they’re proud of. More importantly, they want to achieve economically. And, as we’ve proven, they don’t trust us.

Maybe Obama and Johnny Mac are re-thinking their desire to be Bush’s successor.

Russia: Six Years Ago

This is an article I wrote nearly six years ago while in Moscow. The cash flow and the national debt in Russia have certainly changed thanks to higher oil revenues. If you have been to Russia lately, tell me how it has changed from what I witnessed here.

MOSCOW, RUSSIA (October 21, 2002) — A car bomb explodes at a Moscow McDonald’s. Two days later, a regional governor is assassinated on a busy Moscow street. Four days later, Chechen extremists take theater-goers hostage leading to more than one hundred deaths.

I was there days before the week of carnage in Moscow. A potential client flew me to Russia to see if my production company would produce videos for a joint Russian-American investment fund. Daly Productions has negotiated a contract. But even if we hadn’t, I can still make the case for Russia – despite Chechen rebels, organized crime, and recent financial failures.

The main reason is the people I met. But the most important reason came from one woman’s gasp.

She is the wife of one of our Russian hosts. The gasp echoed over the twelve vodka-laced voices enjoying a feast of meats, cheese, salad, and wine. Neither Chechens nor organized crime caused the two-second jolt of terror. It was far worse. She was staring at Joseph Stalin.

The ghost was really an impersonator. He was an employee at Stalin’s Bunker, an elaborate underground hideout built for the Soviet leader in the 1930’s, now a museum and the setting for dinner.

Stalin’s double toasted us then departed to his working class family. Yet the ghost of the real Stalin lingered. Call it a frightened glance over an historical shoulder.

Alexander Nikinov, a colonel in the Russian Air Force, raised a glass to his American guests. “We are not Americans and Russians. We are people working together.”

Victor, a successful entrepreneur, also toasted: “Let us remember the times we were allies in the Great War.”

There was no talk of the Cold War or the Cuban Missile Crisis, just friendship from a distant, victorious past. Despite recent events in Moscow, most Russians are gasping in horror about the past, not the future.

Giving birth to capitalism has been a long, painful delivery for Russia. But, like parenthood, a free market society will be worthwhile eventually.

One labor pain is the lack of western-style service. At the Moscow Airport, I needed directions to baggage claim. “Excuse me,” I asked a female airport employee, “Do you speak English?” Without missing a step or an English syllable she said, “No, I do not.”

In many restaurants you cannot deviate from the menu. At the Metropol Hotel bar, I ordered a turkey sandwich. I asked for Swiss cheese on the sandwich. “It’s not possible,” the waiter said – even though Swiss cheese was on the menu with another sandwich.

That waiter was the rule; Nadia was the exception. Nadia is a waitress at a chain restaurant called Yaukey Paulkey. Victor, our translator, gave Nadia our order; she wrote it down; then she read it back to him perfectly. We complimented her for her service; then our Russian guests asked for her name and number to consider her for future work.

Another breach in the Russian economy: Bribes. Again, at the Moscow Airport, a customs guard spotted the computer boxes I was delivering. He apparently wanted dollars in return for not putting the boxes through a lengthy Russian paper shuffle. One of my client’s Russian business partners talked to the guard privately; then the computers were released.

An hour later, our Russian driver made an illegal U-turn and got pulled over by a police officer, who then escorted him inside a police van, out of sight, for ten minutes. Our driver kept his rubles, though. He had better government connections.

Even the Russian adoption agencies have joined the bribery game. An American businesswoman we met told us this story. An American couple went to Russia to adopt two children only to discover the adoption fee had doubled well into the tens of thousands. The businesswoman was summoned to Moscow to pay the added fee (bribe) before the children could be taken to the United States.

Many Russians resent the shakedowns by civil servants. They use jokes to endure it.

A man is stopped by a Moscow cop. But before the cop says anything the man tells him, “I have a political joke for you.” The cop, who is a part of the political structure, is astounded. “Why would you tell me a joke like that?” “Don’t worry,” the man says, “I will tell it to you slow and twice.”

In defense of Russian civil servants, they are paid poorly and for a good reason. Russian President Putin has delivered three consecutive balanced budgets. Any surplus pays off the country’s debt from the financial collapse of 1998 – not to salary raises. Seen this way, you realize the Russians are suffering from the pains of progress.

However, not all Russian government workers are corrupt.

Andre is a Russian sailor. He makes one hundred dollars a month to support three boys and his wife in a small apartment. To survive, he is part of the new underground Moscow economy. Two days a week, he drives around Moscow picking up people who need a ride. A traveler simply sticks out a thumb, a driver stops, you negotiate a fee, and you get to your destination. No taxi authority is necessary.

Like Andre, many Russians are learning how to work the system.

Kirill Galetski is twenty-five and Russian-born. He looks like a young Johnny Unitas with the baby face and blond crew cut. He spoke English with an All-American accent, too.

Kirill’s American-born mother and Russian-born father divorced when he was five. Kirill went to America with his mother where he eventually earned a journalism degree from Portland State University.

When I met him, he was writing for an English language newspaper while interpreting during a business seminar in Moscow.

I asked him why he returned to Russia. His answer floored me. “I want to act,” he said. Kirill was attending one of the world’s great acting schools: The Stanislavsky School of Acting.

Russian men speak with great pride about another treasure: Russian women.

Every block, a super model look-a-like walks by: tall, thin, dressed as if they strolling The Champs Elysee or Fifth Avenue; many blondes but some exotic Mediterranean beauties as well.

“Russian women are loyal and traditional,” Kirrill offered. The typical scene at a McDonald’s was of a beautiful woman, dressed in fashionable business attire, with a young child and a husband. “There’s not much of a feminist movement here,” he said.

That has led to a growth in dating or husband-finding agencies in Russia for American men. Alla, a cherubic twenty year old who translated for me one day, said many of her friends had applied at one of the agencies.

There are also plenty of corporate executives popping up in Russia as well. We met an owner of a software company; among his employees are 6 PhD’s. His software will provide immediate translations from one language to another for text and voice.

Another man, a developer, had plans for hotels and office buildings.

I spoke with a group of businessmen who obtained scientific know-how from Russian military experts to create new technology, including a way to analyze blood without having to draw it from the person.

A scientist, who had worked at Lawrence Livermore, was creating a device to detect biological and chemical agents.

Las Vegan Rex Farris, the owner of Global Express Capital Corporation, marvels at the opportunities in Russia. Rex is the client who created that half-billion dollar investment fund for Russia.

He believes Russia’s abundance of land and untapped natural resources resembles “America after World War II.”

The numbers confirm that. The IMF reports that Russian GDP will increase 4.4% for 2002 and 4.9% for 2003. The Russian stock market jumped 82% over the past two years, according to the Wall Street Journal. “Foreign investors account for 20% of the money invested in Russian stocks,” the article on November 20, 2002 states.

That’s on paper, though.

I witnessed plenty signs of a society trying to blossom. A woman stood in front of the Moscow Prosecutor’s Office holding a sign. She was accusing Moscow’s mayor of murder.

Three of Moscow’s state-run museums, dedicated to preserving the history of the Russian military, did not varnish the truth. My Russian guide showed me photos of nine Russian generals, all members of the Russian Military Council in the 1930’s. Stalin executed 77 of these men in 1936. “We lost the top people of our army,” my guide said. “The Germans knew it would be a good time to invade.”

She also guided me to displays honoring the men and women who fought in Afghanistan and Chechnya, Russia’s Vietnams.

Still, the Russians take great pride in their military victories – especially in World War II. One artifact was a jacket worn by Hitler that I actually touched. It had burn marks so it must have been worn during his final days. The inside pocket had the inscription: tailored for Adolf Hitler.

The museum also had two huge photos displayed on a huge wall. One photo was the massing of Russian soldiers in Red Square as they prepared for the Nazi assault. The other photo was the victory parade in Red Square as a staff that bore the name Adolf Hitler was carried by one of the Russians. The actual staff rests on the ground at the base of the photo.

Colonel Nikinov oversees all the military museums. He says he wants to display the museums’ exhibits throughout the world — mainly the United States.

Nikinov is a handsome man with white hair and a young face; one of those people that make the world a good place. At our final dinner, he prefaced his toast like this: “You know I don’t care about making money. I care about friendships and peace between our countries,” he said. Ironic when you consider for most of his career, he was trained to kill Americans.

Nikinov made me think of Tom Friedman, the foreign affairs columnist for The New York Times, whose latest book, “Attitudes and Longitudes” is about the new world after September 11th.

Most of the book is about the Arab world. But Friedman writes about a trip he took to Moscow. He saw the early stages of capitalism in Russia and compared it to the Arab world.

In my final toast to our Russian friends, I paraphrased Tom Friedman. I admit to being eloquent, but the credit goes to Friedman and vodka.

“Tom Friedman says the world is no longer east versus west or free market versus communism. It is the civilized world against the uncivilized world. At the height of the Cold War, Friedman says, the Soviets still cherished life. You knew,” I said pointing to my Russian guests, “destroying us meant also destroying yourselves. Neither of us did it. We cherish life unlike the terrorists today destroying the world and themselves. What we are doing here tonight, having dinner, telling stories, making lasting friendships, that is what civilization is all about. So, a toast to civilization, my friends.”