THE DALY SHOW

Thanksgiving Story

My wife Teri told me this story on the eve of Thanksgiving.  Teri, as many of you know, is an exclusive personal trainer with her own business Daly Workout.  She also teaches a couple of group classes for the Las Vegas Atheltic Club.  This story happened right after one of those classes.

LAS VEGAS, NV (November 26, 2009) — So Teri finishes her group class and notices that two women in the class are talking very warmly.  One of the women was from Iran; the other from Israel.  They’ve lived here for a number of years and each still have the accents of their homelands.  But apparently not the animosity.

Teri watched as both of them spoke in another language as friends.  Then they wished each other “Happy Thanksgiving.”

“Only in America,” Teri said to me as she recounted the story on Thanksgiving morning.

It is something to think about — on the positive side — as we go through this recession and we find it hard for countries to find common grounds for peace.

Happy Thanksgiving.

Another Weapon of Mass Distortion. This Time About Oil

In my book, I refer to the blast emails with false news information as weapons of mass distortion.  Here’s a story on JohnDalyLive about one that seems to pop up when the price of gas goes up.  Again, if the email cannot source the information and if the writer does not identify him or herself, then you can assume it’s someone trying to influence you on just one side — or the false side — of the story.  Special thanks to my buddy Mike Maddux, the pitching coach for the Texas Rangers who gave me the heads up. 

Bush To Cheney: “Hey, Moe”

This is a posting about a leaked report on the reconstruction of Iraq. The report is evidence that President Bush will go down as one of the worst presidents in our history and we Americans can truly be a dumb lot that allowed our nation to become weaker.

LAS VEGAS, NV (December 14, 2008) – A Republican friend told me at lunch a short while ago that he felt sorry for President Bush because so many bad things happened to him while he was in the White House. “Clinton had it much easier,” he said.

I didn’t know where to start without making my friend seem like an idiot. It was one of those conversations I knew would not end in any agreement since he had his facts that were not my facts. So, I kept quiet.

However, a study that will be published in February will give me plenty of fodder for anyone else who thinks our out-going president was a victim of circumstances.

Clearly, this president was doing the work of three men: Moe, Larry, and Curly. (Maybe the President was Larry while Cheney was Moe and Rumsfeld was Curly.)

Either way, the difference between the original Stooges and the ones in this Administration: things didn’t turn out so good for America’s stooges. And it’s not funny.

The report is entitled, “Hard Lessons: The Iraq Reconstruction Experience.” It was compiled by the Office of Special Inspector General for Iraq Reconstruction. The initial draft was leaked the New York Times. But before you go all right-wing whacko on this, know this: the leader of this office and the author of the report is Stuart Bowen, Jr., a Republican lawyer.

The report concludes that we were not prepared for the reconstruction effort and the Iraqis are far worse because of our failed efforts. That’s after $117 billion were spent – including $50 billion of direct taxpayer money.

What’s worse is the money was spent for political reasons – to get George W. Bush re-elected to a second term.

When the Office of Management and Budget balked at the American occupation authority’s abrupt request for about $20 billion in new reconstruction money in August 2003, a veteran Republican lobbyist working for the authority made a bluntly partisan appeal to Joshua B. Bolten, then the O.M.B. director and now the White House chief of staff. “To delay getting our funds would be a political disaster for the President,” wrote the lobbyist, Tom C. Korologos. “His election will hang for a large part on show of progress in Iraq and without the funding this year, progress will grind to a halt.” With administration backing, Congress allocated the money later that year.

This is Nixon-type stuff. I guess Iraq will smack of Vietnam.

There are plenty of implications if this report gains traction. (So far, the Wall Street Journal and the Washington Post have not picked up the story. If anyone catches it elsewhere, let me know.)

First, it raises questions about our future efforts in Afghanistan. President-elect Obama wants to send more troops into that region to hunt down bin Laden and wipe out the Taliban. You have to wonder if the surge in Iraq can be replicated in the nomadic terrain of Afghanistan.

Second, the report makes us realize how impotent we are militarily and diplomatically overseas. We have the bombs, but not much else. Certainly the success of the surge in Iraq has taught us how to tame and work with a population to control an insurgency. But do we really have the resources to be doing this often? I don’t think so.

Granted, I contend that one of the reasons we went into Iraq was to gather intelligence on the world’s Islamic terrorists – that threatened another 9/11. Tactically, it made sense. We provoked all the world’s jihadists to come to Iraq so we could figure out who they were. And, it seems, we did a good job of killing of a number of their heads. But politically and diplomatically, it was a failure. We actually created more terrorists: young men with no education and no work who are angry at us. And morally, it was reprehensible. We provoked a war in a country to help with our intelligence aims. And I won’t even mention the oil.

The third implication is the transparency of government contractors. Although Blackwater is not cited in the Times story, it is clear the amount of money wasted and funneled to companies like that will be more scrutinized.

Fourth, the report will help the Republican Party regain its core beliefs. The GOP is – and should be — the party of business. It’s not just the party of big business. It’s the party of all businesses. And the main businesses that run this country are small businesses. And when you realize what this Administration has done to those business principles and the demise of the Republican Party, you can bet the business Republicans will be back in power soon – without the religious zealots and the near-fascist neo-cons.

And fifth: hopefully the report will show Democrats how power can corrupt and weaken our nation.

Obama So Far

Daly Economic Stimulus Package III

This is a posting considering what the Swedes did to solve their banking crisis. Can Swedish thinking solve the world’s economic crisis?

LAS VEGAS, (November 24, 2008) – I’ve proposed an infusion of government money to the nation’s homeowners in a previous post. Sure, it’s fraught with problems. What plan isn’t? Doing nothing would be criminal. Doing something too small, it seems, is worthless.

Barton Biggs is a big-time investor who now has a company called Traxis Partners. He was just on CNBC’s Squawk Box. He doesn’t know about my plan, but he seems to think the same big thinking I have. (Maybe not as big as mine, but still big.)

He thinks the current TARP is a “half-way measure.” He believes banks won’t start lending until those bad loans – CDOs and CDSs included – are off the banks’ balance sheets. The only way is for the government to buy those bad loans and infuse the banks with more capital.

He looks at Sweden’s banking crisis in the early 1990s – which survived and thrived. The Swedes infused money which was equivalent to 20% of GDP.

That means we would have to infuse more than $2 trillion – far less than my $7.5 trillion – but far higher than what we’ve done so far which is about 4%.

Again, I’m no economist, just an observer. So, take my plan with a grain of salt. But you need to look at what is happening out there – and what is not happening. Primarily, we’re doing too little as a nation to solve this problem.

But there is a silver lining to doing something big.

We’ve been hearing all the talk about America’s falling power and prominence in the world. I think those assessments are over-exaggerated. Are other emerging market countries rising? Yes. But they’re not about to overtake us politically, economically, or militarily.

If anything, this economic crisis shows American strength and our control over the world. When we sneeze, the world gets a cold. In this case, it’s the flu. If our economy went into the tank and the rest of the world thrived, then, yes, I’d agree that we’re on the decline. But the world needs us desperately for some specific reasons.

First, our government and banking system, though causing these problems, has to be the leader to solve them.

Second, once we get our economy moving again, the rest of the world will begin to recover. The American consumer is the basis for the world’s economy.

Third, even though we’re suffering here and the suffering will get worse over the next year, there is no talk of riots or a government coup here. The foundations of our government and our economy are in place. Those foundations do not exist in China, Russia, or Iran.

Those governments are worried. China has infused money into their financial system just to quell any protests from the many workers who are no longer working – since Americans aren’t buying.

Russia is losing revenues due to the fall in oil prices. Their stock market is in the tank. The Kremlin worries about food lines and unemployment.

Iran is the same way. Their oil revenues are dropping while they have failed to upgrade their refining capabilities and they continue to subsidize citizens’ gasoline use. They’re bleeding money over there. In fact, Iran’s lack of revenues might have led to the U.S. agreement on troops in Iraq.

This economic unrest is scary. Massive economic downturns lead to totalitarianism, as we saw in the 1930s.

To avoid further dictatorships, America needs to step forward and get our economy and the world’s economy flowing again. The APEC meeting this weekend seemed to understand that free-trade – not tariffs – is needed. That’s a good sign. But the real catalyst will be a massive infusion into the U.S. economy now.

Go Sweden.

Georgia-Russia Conflict: America Roars with Toothless Gums

This is a posting about my reflections on Russia’s invasion of Georgia and how to look at it from various angles. 

LAS VEGAS, NV (August 13, 2008) – Either Putin’s brilliant or the Bush government is out to lunch. It’s actually both.

Stratfor was the first to pinpoint it for me. You need a subscription to their reports, but let me give you a quick synopsis of what I had been thinking and some of what Stratfor reported a few days after Georgia’s invasion of South Ossetia and then Russia’s retaliatory invasion of Georgia.

This was a colossal mistake by Georgia. They invaded South Ossetia to stop some of the cross border bombings – something that had been happening for a while. Why would they send in troops now?

The quick and massive response makes one think that Russia had covertly orchestrated this all along, coaxing Georgia into a fight. Worse, U.S. intelligence and diplomats failed to either dissuade Georgia or failed to see the Russians hanging on the border ready to pounce.

To countries in Eastern Europe we look like a toothless tiger. We roar and then show our gums. We’re bogged down in the Middle East; our economy is dragging in part because we can’t control energy costs; and the world is growing so dramatically that it’s too big for us to baby-sit.

So, why would we try to attract these countries that border on Russia and invite them into NATO with the assurance of defending them – and then fail to not only defend them, but to warn them or to even counsel them?

In some circles, these governments could actually think America might be working in concert with Russia; a bit far-fetched and better suited for an espionage thriller, but not out of the realm of possibility.

More likely, the answer is that America is an energy weakling. Energy is the Holy Grail in this new century. Russia, Venezuela, and the Middle East have it; America doesn’t. Putin has brilliantly converted petro-dollars into regional power.

I posted an article I wrote from Russia six years ago.  I met a young Russian sailor Andre and how he made ends meet in post-Soviet Russia.

Andre is a Russian sailor. He makes one hundred dollars a month to support three boys and his wife in a small apartment. To survive, he is part of the new underground Moscow economy. Two days a week, he drives around Moscow picking up people who need a ride. A traveler simply sticks out a thumb, a driver stops, you negotiate a fee, and you get to your destination. No taxi authority is necessary.

I would bet that Andre, if still in the Russian Navy, is getting along much better thanks to the petro-dollars. Plus, his military colleagues are better trained – as we heard in Georgia.

Before we condemn Russia, let’s look at the situation through their eyes.

First, Russia was told by the previous two American presidents that we would not try to enlarge NATO with former Soviet Republics. We reneged on that.

Second, we want to put missiles in the region that can strike Russia.

Third, we helped Kosovo secede from Serbia, a Russian ally, despite Russia’s efforts to allow Kosovo to remain autonomous within Serbia.

Fourth, we arm and train Georgia soldiers. Think of Georgia as Cuba; we wouldn’t allow that.

Fifth, historically Russia has been threatened in the past. When you look at all the moves the West made, it’s easy for Russians to think that their country could be choked off economically. I don’t think the Russian reaction was any different than the French reaction to us before Sarkozy; they weren’t upset we went into Iraq, they’re upset that our way or life may diminish or eliminate French culture.

Sixth, the Russians invaded a small country to make a point – not to build a new empire. And, as The Art of War explains, they attacked when they were strong; the Russian economy is in relatively good shape and their coffers with petro-dollars is very strong at least in the short term.

I’m not defending any of Russia’s or Putin’s moves. In the long run, this could hurt Russia – especially if other energy sources are found. We won’t know for years if Putin erred. Certainly he made the right move in the eyes of most Russians. As an outsider, I believe he has, first and foremost, the Russian people’s backs.

The Bush Administration is a different story. They miscalculated again. Or, they failed to have a clear-thinking, forward looking policy.

We need Russia for a number of things. The first is their oil that will heat and keep Europe going. Second, we need Russia to reign in Iran so that oil will continue to flow and cost less. (Notice the oil theme.) Third, Russia wants to be a power again, but they’re not going to take over the world.

Go back and read my piece and see my impressions of the Russian people. They don’t want the disgrace they endured as the Berlin Wall and Communism fell. They have a history they’re proud of. More importantly, they want to achieve economically. And, as we’ve proven, they don’t trust us.

Maybe Obama and Johnny Mac are re-thinking their desire to be Bush’s successor.

Silly Season

This is a posting that warns you what to avoid and how to endure the campaign wackiness known as the Silly Season.  You can also read this at Vegas Community Online.

LAS VEGAS, NV (July 16, 2008) – We’re now in the Silly Season.

Political consultant/analyst Michael Murphy Sunday on Meet the Press coined the phrase. It’s the time before the political conventions and the announcements of the Vice Presidential candidates.

He’s right. No one’s paying attention to the real issues. Instead, the candidates, their staffs, and the media act like school children waving their hands to get the teacher’s attention.

As a result, the media and the pundits are picking over every little word that is spoken or written. What nonsense about Jesse Jackson. The Reverend Jackson doesn’t like Obama talking about responsibility when he himself has shirked responsibility by fathering babies out of wedlock.

The New Yorker inspired frenzy with the satirical front cover also fails to mention cogent issues. Instead, the editors are poking fun at the right-wing nut-cases (that’s redundant many times) who seem to think Obama is working for Osama, Saddam, and a resurrected version of the 1960s Black Panthers.

The best response to the New Yorker cover was, again, from Jon Stewart on the Daily Show. He said Obama should have responded that he’s not upset about the cartoon depicting him as a Muslim because only crazed Muslims respond angrily to cartoons. Brilliant.

Granted, this is high brow humor. You can say that the majority of the people in America are too stupid to understand the joke. It’s hard to argue against that. However, I think most people are also too busy dealing with the economy to be thinking about the cleverness of an insider magazine.

Speaking of the economy, here’s another example of the silly season. Phil Gramm, the former Senator, said America is going through a “mental recession” and we’re a bunch of whiners. That cost him his gig with the Mac camp. Now you understand why Gramm could only win an election in George Bush’s Texas.

Here’s the truth. Gramm was right one out of three times – which is only a good average for a baseball hitters and politicians. First, there is not a recession …technically. We haven’t had two consecutive quarters of negative growth. Second, he’s wrong that this down-turn is mental. It’s real; just look at gas and food prices. That’s not to say some irrational fear hasn’t caused some volatility in commodities and stocks.

But Gramm is right about the whining. We’re not getting our clocks cleaned by India and China because of unfair trade practices. No, we’re being taken to the cleaners because we lack the education of Chinese and Indian workers who will work for less.

Here are the issues no one is really talking about yet – that should be talked about: taxes and the wars. And here is the reality on both.

John McCain says he won’t raise taxes. If you speak to any respected economist –and I have – then you will know that taxes are going up in 2009. And it doesn’t matter who is president. You can’t deny the math. We have an incredible deficit that is growing because we’re fighting two wars. The reason we’ve been able to fund the war and our debt is investors from China and Dubai. We could be beholden to them. They are the creditors and we are the debtors. Granted, they will probably not hurt their biggest customer, but they have started to gain a foothold into our economy.

Unless we want more economic power to leave us, then we need to own more of our country. And that means paying taxes and reducing our debt. Sure, reducing taxes stimulates growth. But we’re facing a looming Social Security and Medicare nightmare that we have not addressed.

Meanwhile, Obama says he will work to bring the troops home in 16 months. He has softened this stance over the past week. (More on flip-flopping later.) It won’t happen. We have no idea what the situation on the ground in Iraq will be 16 months into the new Administration. The chances of democracy, and therefore stability, flourishing there are as probable as Tiger winning the British Open this year.

Furthermore, we’re in Iraq to protect the oil. If you think we only went into Iraq to overthrow a dictator because he was ruthless to his people, then why haven’t we invaded The Sudan to defend Darfur? The main reason we’re in Iraq is to keep our economy flowing.

Let me be clear before the right-wing whackos (again that redundancy) call me a liberal shill. Oil wasn’t the only reason we’re in Iraq. We needed the intelligence. By starting a war, we were able to gather the world’s jihadist nuts (another redundancy) into one place to bring them out of the shadows. The effort has succeeded in many ways. However, it’s a rather cruel way to do it – especially if you’re an Iraqi citizen. Many of your countrymen are sacrificed to root-out the bad guys.

Back to the main point. Unless we come up with an alternative to oil to run our cars, our homes, and our businesses in the next year or two then we’ll definitely have troops in Iraq for a long time.

Let’s calm down over flip-flopping. Both candidates will look like a mackerel pulled from the Atlantic during the silly season. Obama is running to the center. McCain, oddly enough, has to run to the right to gather the core of the GOP. As a result, both candidates will say what it takes to please the majority of voters. The candidate who is the most artful at articulating the nuances will eventually gather steam after Labor Day.

How do you combat this?

My first suggestion is FactCheck.org. This is a non-partisan, non-profit website I highly recommend. They take apart both sides. The Washington Post has a blog called The Fact Checker which is also very good. However, if you think it might be too liberal (which it isn’t) then stick with FactCheck.org. These are both free.

Another suggestion: start thinking globally. One site to research is Stratfor. Their intelligence is fairly reliable, based on my experience. The editors and writers look at issues through a geopolitical framework; where a country sits geographically will help determine how the country responds politically, economically, and militarily. Stratfor is a subscription service.

So is The Economist. I think it’s the best news magazine in the world. It’s London-based, so it has a partial European view of the world. So, Americans will get a slightly different angle on stories. But more importantly, The Economist looks at things economically.

Stratfor and The Economist are good checks on the mainstream media here. They won’t necessarily contradict the reporting stateside, but merely fill in the gaps.

Bryan Cranston: Opines on True Patriotism

The following was sent to me in a mass e-mailÉ 

  If the Red shirt thing is new to you, read below…

This is my response:

I too will wear red.